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☆ Wall St Week Ahead Tax-loss selling, 'Santa rally' could sway U.S. stocks after November melt-up
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-02 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The key catalyst for stocks will likely continue to be the expected trajectory of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. In September, historically the weakest month for stocks, the S&P 500 fell nearly 5%. The S&P 500 gained nearly 9% gain in November, historically a strong month for the index. Overall, December has been the second-best month for the S&P 500, with the index up an average of 1.54% for the month since 1945, according to CFRA. Many other names have languished: The equal-weighted S&P 500, whose performance is not skewed by big tech and growth stocks, is up around 6% in 2023.

Persons: Mike Segar, Santa Claus, Stocks, We've, Sam Stovall, Claus, Kraft Heinz, BofA, Sameer Samana, Dow, Michael Hartnett, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Research, Investors, LPL, BofA Global Research, PayPal Holdings, CVS Health, Kraft, Wells, Investment Institute, Nvidia, Dow Jones, Coinbase Global, Innovation, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, Santa, New York

Yields on the U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury , which move inversely to prices, saw their steepest decline in more than a decade. The Fed chair reiterated that the fight against inflation was far from finished and said the central bank was ready to further tighten monetary policy if necessary. Investors see a strong chance of the central bank delivering a rate cut as early as March 2024, LSEG data show. In late 2022, for example, many expected a recession would hit this year, forcing the Fed to loosen monetary policy. The economy proved resilient while monetary policy stayed tight.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Powell, Paul Nolte, Christopher Waller, “ Powell, that’s, ”, Ed Al, James St . Aubin, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Daniel Wallis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Fed, Treasury, Murphy, Sylvest Wealth Management, Columbia Threadneedle Investments, Sierra Investment Management, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

Rates futures markets are showing cuts being priced as early as May 2024, according to LSEG data. The prospects for rate cuts received a boost on Tuesday after Fed Governor Christopher Waller, deemed a hawk, hinted at lower interest rates in the months ahead if inflation continued to ease. Deutsche Bank economists on Monday projected 175 basis points in Fed rate cuts in 2024, but said that those cuts would come with a mild recession in the first half of next year. “Absent rapid Fed easing, we expect a more challenging macro backdrop for stocks next year,” they wrote in a Wednesday report. Others said investors may be overestimating how quickly the Fed might react to signs of slowing inflation.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, Jack Ablin, ” Ablin, Christopher Waller, ”, Jake Schurmeier, Schurmeier, Thomas Barkin, Charlie McElligott, Michael Green, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Cresset, Gross, Harbor, Reuters, Richmond Fed, Nomura Securities, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, Management, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, stoke, Carolina, New York

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Signs the U.S. stock market rally is broadening from the so-called Magnificent Seven of mega-cap growth and technology companies is bolstering investor hopes for a rally through year-end. In one encouraging sign, about 55% of the S&P 500 were trading above their 200-day moving averages as of Monday. Among other signs, the equal-weight S&P 500 (.SPXEW) -- a proxy for the average stock in the index -- rose 3.24% last week. The equal-weight S&P 500 is trading at a 5% discount to its 10-year average forward price-to-earnings ratio, according to Edward Jones. Still, there are reasons to think that the market rally is not on the verge of a sustained broadening.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Adam Turnquist, Meta, Russell, Mona Mahajan, Edward Jones, ” Mahajan, Steve Sosnick, Jason Draho, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Megan Davies, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, LPL, Microsoft, Nasdaq, Interactive Brokers, UBS Global Wealth Management, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Treasuries

Ten-year Treasury yields hit a 16-year high of 5.021% in late October, but have fallen back to 4.414%. Some big investors and advisers believe, however, that reasons to cheer are short-lived and growing concerns over the economy will start weighting on asset prices early next year. His focus now is more on earnings, credit markets and broader economic data for signs of a potential slowdown. The U.S. presidential race next year is also a concern because it could be a source of more market instability. For a new boost in market performance, tech stocks will depend more on showing how AI can lift results, investors said.

Persons: We've, Ryan Israel, Bill Ackman's, Mohamed El, Peter van Dooijeweert, Max Gokhman, Franklin Templeton, Bill Gross, van Dooijeweert, Carolina Mandl, David Randall, Svea, Bayliss, Megan Davies, Leslie Adler Organizations: Nasdaq, Bill Ackman's Pershing, Capital Management, Allianz, Group's Solutions, U.S, Reuters, Microsoft, Wall, Svea Herbst, Thomson Locations: extrapolating, U.S, China

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Bargain or trap? US bank stock outlook hinges on Fed's path
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Bank stocks are at an all-time low compared with the S&P 500 based on relative prices, according to data from BofA Global Research. One key factor for bank stocks is whether the Federal Reserve is close to wrapping up a monetary tightening cycle that has brought the highest U.S. interest rates in decades. Yet signs the Fed may keep rates around current levels through most of next year have weighed on bank stocks. This month, analysts at BofA Global Research said investors should “selectively” add exposure to bank stocks in anticipation of an interest rate peak. Overall, about 61% of all outstanding mortgages have an interest rate below 4%, according to the Apollo Group, leaving consumers little incentive to refinance or move.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, ”, Quincy Krosby, Bill Gross, Neville Javeri, Goldman Sachs, Jeff Muhlenkamp, David Randall, Bansari Mayur, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Silicon Valley Bank, Bank, BofA Global Research, LPL, Federal Reserve, Fund, Allspring Global Investments, Fifth Third Bancorp, Investors, Apollo Group, financials, Fed, Muhlenkamp & Company, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Silicon

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 10 (Reuters) - A hawkish lean from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell chilled a recent rebound in stocks and bonds, with some investors suggesting the central bank was pushing back against loosening financial conditions. Some investors said Powell may have been leaning against a recent loosening of financial conditions that has come as yields have tumbled in recent weeks. Evidence of the dynamic between yields and financial conditions - factors that reflect the availability of funding in an economy - was on display in last week's 0.5% decline in the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index, its sixth-biggest weekly drop since 1990. "If their concept is to have tighter financial conditions, they can’t really let those yields go down. "The rally of the markets both in equity and fixed income unwound the financial conditions tightening to a large degree," Desai said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Powell, Charlie Ripley, Powell …, Spencer Hakimian, Sonal Desai, Franklin, Desai, Vassili Serebriakov, Jeffrey Roach, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Karen Brettell, Ira Iosebashvili, Sam Holmes Organizations: Economic, of New, REUTERS, International Monetary Fund, Treasury, Allianz Investment Management, Goldman, Tolou Capital Management, UBS, Investors, LPL Financial, Thomson Locations: of New York, New York City, U.S, New York

☆ Falling Treasury yields could turn Fed hawkish if financial conditions ease
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 9 (Reuters) - Falling Treasury yields helped launch an explosive rebound in stocks and lifted U.S. government bonds from 16-year lows. Evidence of the dynamic between yields and financial conditions could be seen in last week’s 0.5% decline in the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index, its sixth biggest weekly drop since 1990. Policymakers have largely refrained from verbally pushing back on the easing in financial conditions during a flurry of appearances by policymakers this week. Analysts at TD Securities, however, believe further easing in Treasury yields will eventually become a "double-edged sword." To be sure, not every scenario sees the Fed in a higher-for-longer posture if Treasury yields continue falling.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Brian Jacobsen, Jacobsen, CME's, Sameer Samana, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Committee, REUTERS, Goldman, Treasury, Annex Wealth Management, Reuters Graphics, International Monetary Fund, TD Securities, Fed, Wells, Investment Institute, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, United States, China, Samana, U.S

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Stock investors see green light in falling Treasury yields
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The relationship between stocks and bonds has been a tight one in recent months, with equities falling as Treasury yields climbed to 16-year highs. Higher yields offer investment competition to stocks while also raising the cost of capital for companies and households. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has surged nearly 6% from its October lows. Draho expects the S&P 500 to trade between 4,200 and 4,600 until investors determine whether the economy will be able to avoid a recession. The S&P 500 was recently up more than 1% on the day.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jason Draho, Draho, Ryan Detrick, Greg Wilensky, Janus Henderson, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Louise Heavens Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Treasury, UBS Global Wealth Management, National Association of Active Investment, CFRA Research, Carson Investment Research, Fed, Apple Inc, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Treasuries

Plenty of bond investors have been burned calling a bottom in a selloff that has taken Treasuries to the cusp of an unprecedented third straight year of losses. One potential near-term pitfall is Friday’s U.S. payrolls data, which could revive expectations of Fed hawkishness if they come in stronger than expected. The rise in Treasury yields has reached far beyond the bond market. The S&P 500 is down nearly 8% from its July high, as rising bond yields offer investment competition to equities while threatening to raise the cost of capital for companies. “The market is running with the idea that the Fed is done hiking, which they may or may not be,” he said.

Persons: Jerome Powell nodded, Bonds, ”, Jack McIntyre, “, ” McIntyre, Stanley Druckenmiller, Duquesne, Bond, Josh Emanuel, Powell, We've, Greg Wilensky, Janus Henderson, ” Wilensky, Noah Wise, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili Organizations: Treasury, Federal, Fed, U.S . Treasury, Brandywine, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, Allspring Global Investments, Thomson Locations: U.S, Wilshire

☆ Benchmark 10-year Treasury yield could top 7%: Ned Davis Research
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NEW YORK, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Investors should be prepared for long-duration Treasury yields to reach 7% if the U.S. economy skirts a widely anticipated recession, Ned Davis Research warned in a note on Tuesday. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, are hovering near 16-year highs of 5% as investors price in rising U.S. federal deficits and the Federal Reserve's guidance that it will keep rates high until it is convinced that inflation is under control. Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research, said the Treasury sell-off could continue if the neutral rate of interest - the rate at which monetary policy is neither contractionary nor expansionary - rises due to a prolonged expansion. "So getting comfortable with a 5% 10-year Treasury is actually quite conservative," he wrote. With the potential for a worsening Treasury market sell-off, Kalish is bullish on gold and remains slightly underweight bonds, and favors large-cap equities over small-caps, he noted.

Persons: Ned Davis, Joseph Kalish, Kalish, Powell, Treasury Department's, David Randall, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Ned Davis Research, Ned, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: U.S, Treasuries

☆ Investors on edge as Middle East conflict intensifies
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-28 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Investors have grown more worried about a widening conflict in recent days after the U.S. dispatched more military assets to the Middle East while Israel attacked targets in Gaza and Hamas supporters in Lebanon and Syria. Some investors also expect a widening conflict could prompt safe-haven buying of Treasuries. "However, an escalation of the conflict would likely shift attention away from monetary policy concerns and boost safe-haven demand for Treasuries." The Cboe Volatility index (.VIX) has climbed in the wake of the conflict and rose on Friday, approaching seven-month highs. The Federal Reserve is set to give its latest monetary policy statement on Wednesday, while Apple's quarterly results highlights another busy week of corporate reports.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, ”, Randy Frederick, Charles Schwab, Brent, Peter Cardillo, Lewis Krauskopf, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, Hamas, Investors, U.S, Capital Economics, Spartan Capital Securities, UBS Global Wealth Management, Thomson Locations: Gaza, East, Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Treasuries, U.S

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Frazzled U.S. stock investors eye frothy Treasury market as Fed looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-28 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 27, 2023. October has lived up to its reputation for volatility, as a surge in Treasury yields and geopolitical uncertainty pressured stocks. Higher Treasury yields are seen as a headwind to stocks, in part because they compete with equities for buyers. More broadly, some believe the stock market's trading patterns this year point to a rebound in the fourth quarter. "The stock market is poised for a late Q4 rally."

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Sam Stovall, CME's, Alex McGrath, Charlie Ripley, Tesla, Stovall, Ned Davis, Randy Frederick, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Apple Inc, Treasury, Strong U.S, CFRA Research, Investors, U.S, Gross, Fed, Allianz Investment Management, Google, CFRA, Ned Davis Research, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

A 0.25 mg injection pen of Novo Nordisk's weight-loss drug Wegovy is shown in this photo illustration in Oslo, Norway, September 1, 2023. REUTERS/Victoria Klesty/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON/NEW YORK, Oct 23 (Reuters) - The growth in demand for appetite suppressing anti-obesity drugs like Novo Nordisk's (NOVOb.CO) Wegovy presents opportunities for food manufacturers and the market's initially downbeat reaction may be overdone, investors say. Still, the stock market impact left some food manufacturers "trembling," said John Plassard, senior investment specialist at Nestle investor Mirabaud Group. The uptake in appetite suppressing drugs seems to be a U.S.-led dynamic, said My Nguyen, research analyst at Legal & General Investment Management America. "Elsewhere, trends such as wealthier, more mobile middle classes in emerging countries can support shifts towards snacking and convenience foods."

Persons: Victoria Klesty, Richard Saldanha, Wegovy, Kiran Aziz, Mark Schneider, John Plassard, Brian Frank, Frank, Nguyen, Richa Naidu, Matt Scuffham, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: REUTERS, Walmart, Nestle, Aviva, Novo Nordisk, EY, Industry, Health Sciences, Wellness, Mirabaud, Tyson Foods, Arcos Dorados, Legal, General Investment Management America, Germany's, Investments, Unilever, Coca Cola, Thomson Locations: Oslo, Norway, Victoria, United States, Denmark, Germany, Arda, Ural, U.S

☆ BlackRock warns of US earnings stagnation, remains bullish on AI, Japan
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-23 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The S&P 500 is down nearly 8% from its July highs as a selloff in Treasuries has pushed yields near 16-year highs, sapping investor enthusiasm for equities. While the firm is underweight broad equities for the next 6 to 12 months, it remains bullish on mega-cap technology companies, as well as healthcare and Japanese stocks, it noted. Overall, stock valuations look elevated, especially given the higher yields available in the bond market, the firm noted. The bearish call from BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, comes as investors closely watch earnings for signs that the U.S. economy remains resilient in the face of rising interest rates. Companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post earnings growth of 1.3% in the third quarter compared with the same time last year, according to LSEG IBES.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, LSEG, David Randall, Hugh Lawson Organizations: BlackRock, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, BlackRock Investment, Companies, Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Apple, Nvidia, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, BlackRock, Treasuries

☆ Relentless climb in Treasury yields may have further to run after surging to 5%
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( David Randall | Davide Barbuscia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Still, some traders interpreted his comments as an endorsement of keeping rates around current levels through most of next year. Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury, which move inversely to bond prices, rose briefly to 5% late on Thursday, a closely watched level not seen since 2007. “That gives people the go ahead to take rates above 5%.”Whiteley said that he sees 10-year yields moving as high as 5.5% before peaking. An extended climb in Treasury yields risks exacerbating the pressures that have dogged a broad array of assets in recent months. Still, even if the Fed cuts rates over the next few years, yields could stay above 5% if inflation and growth remain high, he said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Stocks, ’ ”, Greg Whiteley, ” Whiteley, ”, Gennadiy Goldberg, ” Goldberg, Powell, Sameer Samana, Alan Rechtschaffen, Rechtschaffen, Robert Tipp, “ Organizations: YORK, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Federal, Economic, of New, REUTERS, New York Economic, Fed, TD Securities, Wells, Investment Institute, UBS Global Wealth Management, Tipp Locations: of New York, New York City, U.S, DoubleLine

Still, some traders interpreted his comments as an endorsement of keeping rates around current levels through most of next year. Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury, which move inversely to bond prices, rose briefly to 5% late on Thursday, a closely watched level not seen since 2007. "That gives people the go ahead to take rates above 5%.”Whiteley said that he sees 10-year yields moving as high as 5.5% before peaking. An extended climb in Treasury yields risks exacerbating the pressures that have dogged a broad array of assets in recent months. Still, even if the Fed cuts rates over the next few years, yields could stay above 5% if inflation and growth remain high, he said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Stocks, ”, Greg Whiteley, ” Whiteley, Gennadiy Goldberg, Goldberg, Powell, Sameer Samana, Alan Rechtschaffen, Rechtschaffen, Robert Tipp, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Megan Davies Organizations: Economic, of New, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal Reserve, New York Economic, Fed, TD Securities, Wells, Investment Institute, UBS Global Wealth Management, Tipp, Thomson Locations: of New York, New York City, U.S, DoubleLine

☆ Treasury selloff will end in Q4 as oil prices spike -Goldman Sachs
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A bronze seal for the Department of the Treasury is shown at the U.S. Treasury building in Washington, U.S., January 20, 2023. Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, hovered near their highest levels since 2007 on Thursday, continuing a bond market selloff that has pushed yields up by more than 40 basis points since the start of October. At close to 5%, 10-year Treasury yields are significantly above their fair value of 4.2% to 4.3%, Goldman Sachs noted. Treasuries will likely rally as the economy hits a "pothole" in the fourth quarter, Goldman Sachs said. "The key risk to this trade is that U.S. data is stronger than expected leading yields to fall less than our strategist expects," Goldman Sachs wrote.

Persons: Kevin Lamarque, Goldman Sachs, Treasuries, Scott Wren, Wren, David Randall, Will Dunham Organizations: Department of, U.S . Treasury, REUTERS, Treasury Bond ETF, Treasury, Wells, Investment Institute, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, Wells Fargo

The firm's results "underscore continued pressure on industry organic growth that may last longer than currently reflected in investors’ expectations amid higher-for-longer short-term rates," analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote in a report Friday. "While we are encouraged by the firm’s sharper focus on expenses, we expect (BlackRock's) near-term organic base fee growth to remain muted." Investors are likely waiting for yields to peak before making any significant changes in their asset allocation, BlackRock said. "The long-term trend of clients consolidating more of their portfolios with BlackRock is only accelerating, and underlying business momentum remains strong," Fink said. The New York-based company's chief source of revenue is the management fees it earns as a percentage of the total AUM.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Larry Fink, Fink, Kyle Sanders, Edward Jones, Larry, Goldman Sachs, . Fink, Cathy Seifert, Jaiveer Singh, Devika Syamnath, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: BlackRock, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Goldman, CNBC, Revenue, The, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, BlackRock, The New York, Bengaluru

Jobs growth for September nearly doubled expectations as nonfarm payrolls increased by 336,000 for the month, strengthening views that policymakers will need to keep interest rates elevated to cool inflation. Treasury yields move inversely to bond prices. “It’s quite a report,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities. On the long end of the curve, 30-year yields surged above 5% hitting their highest since 2007. However, Craig Ellinger, head of Americas fixed income at UBS Asset Management, believes more rate increases could be in store.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, ”, Peter Cardillo, Jake Schurmeier, ” Alex McGrath, Tiffany Wilding, Craig Ellinger, Ellinger, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Stephen Culp, Sruthi Shankar, Ira Iosebashvili, Chizu Nomiyama, Diane Craft Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Spartan Capital Securities, Harbor Capital, ADP, Fed, UBS Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Treasuries, Americas

So-called bond vigilantes - investors who punish profligate governments by selling their bonds, driving yields higher - were a feature of markets in the 1990s, when concerns over U.S. federal spending pushed Treasury yields to 8%. Strategist Ed Yardeni, who coined the bond vigilantes term in the early 1980s, has also chimed in. “The bond vigilantes have been challenging (Treasury Secretary Janet) Yellen’s policies by raising bond yields to levels that threaten to create a debt crisis,” he said in a Financial Times opinion piece on Wednesday. Famed bond investor Bill Gross, who co-founded Pacific Investment Management Co., said bond vigilantes will have a muted effect now given the Fed's larger role in markets. Bond investors "are rather powerless pawns in this interest rate chess game," he told Reuters by email.

Persons: Fitch, doesn't, Gene Tannuzzo, Jake Remley, Ed Yardeni, Janet, ”, Bill Gross, Greg Whiteley, Robert Tipp, David Randall, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebashvili, Megan Davies, Cynthia Osterman Organizations: Bond, Columbia, Treasury, Apollo, Treasury Department, Government, Social, Research, Management, “, Pacific Investment Management Co, Thomson Locations: Wall, Boston

☆ Strong earnings will reverse decline in megacap tech stocks: Goldman Sachs
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Strong upcoming earnings results could reverse the decline in mega-cap technology and growth stocks, which have been hammered by the rise in Treasury yields and are trading at their cheapest levels in six years by one measure, according to Goldman Sachs strategists. At the same time, the group is expected to post sales growth of 11% in the third quarter, compared with a 1% improvement for the S&P 500, the firm noted. The S&P 500 has dropped nearly 5% over the last 10 trading days but remains slightly more than 11% up since the start of the year. "We expect the S&P 500 to rally into year-end, with more upside in the equal-weighted index," Subramanian wrote.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Goldman Sachs, Savita Subramanian, Subramanian, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Mark Potter Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, BofA Global Research, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

NEW YORK, Sept 27 (Reuters) - As the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance boosts Treasury yields and slams stocks, some investors are preparing for more pain ahead. AQR's analysis showed that trend-following hedge funds tend to outperform when rates are elevated, as they hold large cash positions that benefit from higher rates. Of course, plenty of investors believe the Fed will cut rates as soon as economic growth starts to wobble. Futures tied to the Fed’s key policy rate show investors pricing in the first rate cut in July 2024. Still, he has been holding off on adding to the firm’s holdings of small-cap consumer stocks, wary there may be more market volatility ahead as investors digest higher rates and other factors, including elevated energy prices.

Persons: ”, Jake Schurmeier, Dan Villalon, Keith Lerner, Lerner, Robert Pavlik, Schurmeier, he’s, Eric Kuby, Lewis Krauskopf, David Randall, Carolina, Ira Iosebashvili, Leslie Adler Organizations: Fed, Apple, Nvidia, Treasury, U.S ., Harbor Capital Advisors, AQR Capital Management, Advisory Services, Reuters, Dakota Wealth Management, BofA Global Research, Nasdaq, North Star Investment Management Corp, Thomson Locations: Harbor

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Fed-wary investors eye mounting risks to US stock rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The S&P 500 (.SPX) tumbled 2.9% this week, its biggest weekly decline since March. High Treasury yields dull the allure of stocks by offering investors an attractive payout on an investment seen as virtually risk free. The S&P 500 entered what has historically been its weakest 10-day stretch of the year on Sept. 18, according to BofA Global Research. Meanwhile, a drawn out government shutdown could aggravate concerns over U.S. government gridlock and send Treasury yields even higher. He noted that the S&P 500 remains above its 200-day moving average and there have been few signs of investors fleeing to safety.

Persons: Charlie Ripley, Brian Jacobsen, “, ”, Fitch, Keith Lerner, Adam Turnquist, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Investors, BoFA, Allianz Investment Management, Treasury, Annex Wealth Management, BofA Global Research, Societe Generale, LPL Financial, Thomson

The U.S. central bank left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, in line with market expectations. Broadly speaking, higher rates for longer could be an unwelcome turn of events for stocks and bonds. The S&P 500 lost 0.94% on Wednesday, while the yield on two-year Treasuries, which reflect interest rate expectations, hit 17-year highs. Futures tied to the Fed’s policy rate late Wednesday showed traders were betting the central bank would ease monetary policy by a total of nearly 60 basis points next year, bringing interest rates to about 4.8%. Signs of wobbling growth could bolster the case for the central bank to cut rates far sooner than it had projected.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Josh Jamner, Gennadiy Goldberg, Jerome Powell, …, David Norris, John Madziyire, ”, Norris, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Herbert Lash, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Stephen Coates Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Federal, U.S, Treasury, U.S ., Clearbridge Investments, TD Securities USA, TwentyFour Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S

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